Think tank: Europe must steer Kosovo to independence or face renewed conflict

PRISTINA, Serbia: An international think tank said Tuesday that the European Union should support independence for Kosovo or risk plunging the region into violence.

New talks between ethnic Albanians and Serbia are likely to fail, the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank, said in a report, adding that the EU's failure to form a common position on Kosovo's independence would have "very disturbing consequences for Europe."

"If it is incapable once again, it would almost certainly lead to bloodshed and renewed regional chaos that would blow back into Central and Western Europe in the form of refugees and stronger organized crime networks," said Sabine Freizer of ICG.

Kosovo has been under United Nations and NATO control since 1999 after NATO's 78-day air war against Yugoslavia, waged to stop a crackdown on the province's separatist ethnic Albanians.

The report, titled "Breaking the Kosovo Stalemate: Europe's Responsibility," called upon the bloc to coordinate a unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo's ethnic Albanian leaders if talks between the two sides, slated to end by Dec. 10, do not result in an agreement.




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However, it urged Western diplomats to "restrain Kosovo Albanians from unilateral actions," fearing an unsupervised declaration of independence could prompt leaders in Kosovo's Serb-dominated north to respond with a separatist move of their own.

Envoys from United States, the European Union and Russia launched a 120-day effort to end the impasse over Kosovo after Russia's threat to block in the U.N. Security Council a Western-backed plan to grant the province internationally supervised independence.

The plan, drafted by former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari, would give broad rights to the Serb minority in Kosovo and proposes that the province separate from Serbia after a period of international supervision under EU leadership.

The 37-page report of the International Crisis Group urged the EU and U.S. to enforce the Ahtisaari plan, despite Russia's opposition to Kosovo's independence.

Ethnic Albanian leaders and Serbian officials are to hold the next round of talks with international envoys Aug. 30 in Vienna, Austria. Both sides have expressed doubt that an agreement can be reached.

Hashim Thaci, an ethnic Albanian negotiator, said Tuesday the province's leaders "will be very clear, cooperative and determined that Kosovo's independence be official and recognized very soon by the U.S., EU and that Russia should not in any way be allowed to unilaterally prevent this."

Kosovo's leaders insist on independence from Serbia following the 1998-99 conflict that left 10,000 dead in the face of an onslaught from Serbian forces. Serbia considers the territory an integral part of the country.

"If Kosovo explodes because the independence issue is mishandled, the regional risks would include that eight years worth of international resources and prestige dedicated to managing the crisis would be lost," the report said.

"The genie of ethnic conflict would be let loose again."

Amid Friction, Plans for U.S.-Iran Talks on Iraq

CAIRO, May 13 — The diplomatic tussle between and the United States intensified Sunday as leaders from both countries toured Middle Eastern capitals seeking to shore up relationships, even as signs of new cooperation over emerged between them.

Iran’s president, , arrived in the United Arab Emirates on Sunday afternoon, the first trip there by an Iranian leader since the country’s founding in 1971, seeking to improve a strategic trade partnership just as Vice President landed in Cairo as part of a Middle East tour meant to mollify America’s regional allies and strengthen support against Iran.

The visits occurred as officials from both countries announced that Ryan C. Crocker, the American ambassador to Iraq, would meet with his Iranian counterpart in Baghdad in coming weeks to discuss Iraqi security efforts and cooperation between the countries.

In the Emirates’ capital, Abu Dhabi, Mr. Ahmadinejad met with Sheik Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nahayan, the president, and with Dubai’s ruler, Sheik Muhammad bin Rahid al-Maktoum, the Emirates’ vice president, seeking to emphasize the importance of Iran’s relationship with the Emirates, the official Iranian news agency IRNA reported.

“We consider progress and prosperity of the U.A.E. as our own,” Mr. Ahmadinejad was quoted as saying.

But the Emirates’ leaders sought to ease the confrontation between the United States and Iran. Sheik Khalifa told Mr. Ahmadinejad that the Emirates sought the “elimination of the causes of tension in the Middle East,” especially in the Persian Gulf, the Emirates’ official news agency WAM reported.

“He is on a damage-control mission,” said Abdel Khaliq Abdallah, a professor of political science at United Arab Emirates University, referring to Mr. Ahmadinejad. “So maybe it’s about time for us to be as frank as possible that we really think he and Iran are playing a dangerous game with the world community.”

Later Sunday, Mr. Ahmadinejad went to Dubai, where he met with members of the Iranian Business Council, an Iranian trade group, and members of the Iranian community. Dubai is home to more than 500,000 Iranians who rely on the emirate as a focal point for trade and travel.

Speaking to several hundred people, many of them flag-waving Iranians, in a highly unusual political gathering held in a soccer stadium, he called for America to leave the region, The Associated Press reported. “The nations of the region can no longer take you forcing yourself on them,” he was quoted as saying.

At almost the same time, Mr. Cheney landed in Cairo for three hours of talks with President and top military officials to discuss Iraq as well as Iran’s growing regional influence. The vice president made no public comment after his visit here, part of a swing through the Middle East that included visits to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and an American warship in the Persian Gulf.

Mr. Mubarak’s spokesman said Mr. Cheney had “focused especially on the situation in Iraq and the gulf, the security arrangements of the gulf and the relation with the Iranian nuclear program.”

Despite the growing tensions between the United States and Iran, the announcement of planned talks on Iraq brought new hope for cooperation to help stabilize Iraq. A previous plan for talks fell through.

“Following consultations between Iranian and Iraqi officials, Tehran has agreed to hold negotiations with Washington to relieve pain and suffering of the Iraqi people, support and strengthen the government of and stabilize security and peace in that country,” said Mohammad Ali Hosseini, the spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, in comments reported by IRNA.

White House officials said the talks flowed from an effort by the two countries, including meetings on the margins of conferences on stabilizing Iraq that were held in Baghdad in March and in Cairo last week.

“The purpose is to try to make sure that the Iranians play a productive role in Iraq,” the White House spokesman, Gordon D. Johndroe, told reporters on Air Force One en route to Virginia. “This is an ongoing process of trying to make sure that Iraq’s neighbors, of which Iran is obviously a major one, play a constructive role.”

Michael Slackman reported from Cairo, and Hassan M. Fattah from Beirut, Lebanon. Nada El-Sawy contributed reporting from Dubai, and Sheryl Gay Stolberg from Air Force One.

Blair made Bush's ordeal in Iraq less lonely, but it cost him

WASHINGTON: The Iraq war has been a lonely quest for President George W. Bush, but it has been less so thanks to the unwavering backing of British Prime Minister Tony Blair.

Blair is stepping down on June 27 after a decade in power, and no issue during his tenure is leaving a more indelible imprint than his no-apologies support for the U.S.-led war effort.

Bush seemed optimistic Thursday about the possibility of continuity on Iraq between Blair and his likely successor, Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown, the government's financial chief.

The president told reporters on Thursday that he believes Brown "understands the consequences of failure" in Iraq. As Bush sees it, a U.S. defeat would give a boost to terror everywhere.

Britain ranks second, after the United States, in terms of troops committed to Iraq. The British total is 7,100 but a reduction to 5,000 is planned for late this year.






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With Blair's announcement, Bush faces the final 19 months of his term in office without his closest ally and, as the president described him, "good friend."

The two appear to have a relaxed relationship. In Russia last year, unaware that a nearby microphone was on, Bush was heard to greet his colleague with a "Yo, Blair," leaving the prime minister embarrassed.

While there was shared anguish over the maelstrom in Iraq, neither leader has given any hint of regret over the venture. Both have paid a dear price politically, scoring under 30 percent in polls, the fallout from a war that is highly unpopular in both the United States and Britain.

Julianne Smith, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said there is no question that Blair's legacy "will suffer from the stain of Iraq."

Blair, she said, was content to "cozy up to the United States to the bitter end, refusing to look back and question his choice."

Charles Kupchan, of the Council on Foreign Relations, said Blair "leaves under a cloud, having lost the confidence of his own party and with the Conservatives well ahead in the polls."

A month ago, Brown met with Bush for the first time without Blair being present. The two men spoke for a half-hour after Bush dropped in on a meeting between Brown and U.S. national security adviser Stephen Hadley. Brown was in Washington for meetings at the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

"I have found him to be an open and engaging person," Bush said, also describing him as an "easy-to-talk-to, good thinker."

On Iraq, Brown had promised to "spend what it takes" to disarm Saddam Hussein's Iraq. He is expected to keep British troops in Iraq for the near future, and to maintain Britain's strong relationship with America.

While Brown's ultimate course on Iraq is unclear, Europe has been generally projecting a friendlier image toward the United States. The latest concrete example is the recent election of Nicolas Sarkozy as president of France, which followed the accession in Germany of Chancellor Angela Merkel in late 2005.