Think tank: Europe must steer Kosovo to independence or face renewed conflict

PRISTINA, Serbia: An international think tank said Tuesday that the European Union should support independence for Kosovo or risk plunging the region into violence.

New talks between ethnic Albanians and Serbia are likely to fail, the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank, said in a report, adding that the EU's failure to form a common position on Kosovo's independence would have "very disturbing consequences for Europe."

"If it is incapable once again, it would almost certainly lead to bloodshed and renewed regional chaos that would blow back into Central and Western Europe in the form of refugees and stronger organized crime networks," said Sabine Freizer of ICG.

Kosovo has been under United Nations and NATO control since 1999 after NATO's 78-day air war against Yugoslavia, waged to stop a crackdown on the province's separatist ethnic Albanians.

The report, titled "Breaking the Kosovo Stalemate: Europe's Responsibility," called upon the bloc to coordinate a unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo's ethnic Albanian leaders if talks between the two sides, slated to end by Dec. 10, do not result in an agreement.




Today in Europe

However, it urged Western diplomats to "restrain Kosovo Albanians from unilateral actions," fearing an unsupervised declaration of independence could prompt leaders in Kosovo's Serb-dominated north to respond with a separatist move of their own.

Envoys from United States, the European Union and Russia launched a 120-day effort to end the impasse over Kosovo after Russia's threat to block in the U.N. Security Council a Western-backed plan to grant the province internationally supervised independence.

The plan, drafted by former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari, would give broad rights to the Serb minority in Kosovo and proposes that the province separate from Serbia after a period of international supervision under EU leadership.

The 37-page report of the International Crisis Group urged the EU and U.S. to enforce the Ahtisaari plan, despite Russia's opposition to Kosovo's independence.

Ethnic Albanian leaders and Serbian officials are to hold the next round of talks with international envoys Aug. 30 in Vienna, Austria. Both sides have expressed doubt that an agreement can be reached.

Hashim Thaci, an ethnic Albanian negotiator, said Tuesday the province's leaders "will be very clear, cooperative and determined that Kosovo's independence be official and recognized very soon by the U.S., EU and that Russia should not in any way be allowed to unilaterally prevent this."

Kosovo's leaders insist on independence from Serbia following the 1998-99 conflict that left 10,000 dead in the face of an onslaught from Serbian forces. Serbia considers the territory an integral part of the country.

"If Kosovo explodes because the independence issue is mishandled, the regional risks would include that eight years worth of international resources and prestige dedicated to managing the crisis would be lost," the report said.

"The genie of ethnic conflict would be let loose again."

Arianna Huffington: Tony Blair's Legacy: George Bush's Iraq Trump Card

Arianna Huffington 47 minutes ago

With on his slow-bleed resignation, we can expect the floodgates to open on stories analyzing his ten year run as prime minister and the impact he had on America.

"Hand on heart," he said in announcing he will leave office at the end of June, "I did what I thought was right. I may have been wrong. That's your call. But believe one thing: I did what I thought was right for our country."

Maybe so, but his hand-on-heartfelt convictions had dire consequences for U.S. foreign policy. Blair was exactly what George W. Bush needed to sell his fraudulent and immoral war in to the American public: a seemingly reasonable and non-partisan stamp of international approval (after all, he'd been bosom buddies with , hadn't he?). Blair enabled the Bush myth that the invasion of Iraq was a coalition effort, that it wasn't just Mongolia, Moldova, Singapore, Poland, and Tonga making up the Coalition of the Willing to Go Along. It was Britain. Great Britain.

More than being just Bush and Cheney's cheery wingman, Blair was one of their top salesmen, pitching dossiers, Nigeran yellowcake, and the specter of chemical weapons "" raining down on Europe. Although Blair was far from the only enabler to Bush's Iraq fantasies -- spineless Congressional Democrats and a wildly compliant press certainly did their part -- the impact of his unwavering support was enormous.

Iraq is 's war, but Tony Blair's legacy will be forever tainted by the part of it he claimed for his own.