Think tank: Europe must steer Kosovo to independence or face renewed conflict

PRISTINA, Serbia: An international think tank said Tuesday that the European Union should support independence for Kosovo or risk plunging the region into violence.

New talks between ethnic Albanians and Serbia are likely to fail, the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank, said in a report, adding that the EU's failure to form a common position on Kosovo's independence would have "very disturbing consequences for Europe."

"If it is incapable once again, it would almost certainly lead to bloodshed and renewed regional chaos that would blow back into Central and Western Europe in the form of refugees and stronger organized crime networks," said Sabine Freizer of ICG.

Kosovo has been under United Nations and NATO control since 1999 after NATO's 78-day air war against Yugoslavia, waged to stop a crackdown on the province's separatist ethnic Albanians.

The report, titled "Breaking the Kosovo Stalemate: Europe's Responsibility," called upon the bloc to coordinate a unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo's ethnic Albanian leaders if talks between the two sides, slated to end by Dec. 10, do not result in an agreement.




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However, it urged Western diplomats to "restrain Kosovo Albanians from unilateral actions," fearing an unsupervised declaration of independence could prompt leaders in Kosovo's Serb-dominated north to respond with a separatist move of their own.

Envoys from United States, the European Union and Russia launched a 120-day effort to end the impasse over Kosovo after Russia's threat to block in the U.N. Security Council a Western-backed plan to grant the province internationally supervised independence.

The plan, drafted by former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari, would give broad rights to the Serb minority in Kosovo and proposes that the province separate from Serbia after a period of international supervision under EU leadership.

The 37-page report of the International Crisis Group urged the EU and U.S. to enforce the Ahtisaari plan, despite Russia's opposition to Kosovo's independence.

Ethnic Albanian leaders and Serbian officials are to hold the next round of talks with international envoys Aug. 30 in Vienna, Austria. Both sides have expressed doubt that an agreement can be reached.

Hashim Thaci, an ethnic Albanian negotiator, said Tuesday the province's leaders "will be very clear, cooperative and determined that Kosovo's independence be official and recognized very soon by the U.S., EU and that Russia should not in any way be allowed to unilaterally prevent this."

Kosovo's leaders insist on independence from Serbia following the 1998-99 conflict that left 10,000 dead in the face of an onslaught from Serbian forces. Serbia considers the territory an integral part of the country.

"If Kosovo explodes because the independence issue is mishandled, the regional risks would include that eight years worth of international resources and prestige dedicated to managing the crisis would be lost," the report said.

"The genie of ethnic conflict would be let loose again."

U.S. Senate to vote on whether to cut off money for Iraq war in 2008

WASHINGTON: The Senate is expected to vote as early as this week on whether to cut off money for the Iraq war next year, as well as on a softer measure calling for U.S. troops to leave by October.

Senate Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid said Monday the two measures would be offered as amendments to a water projects funding bill being debated this week. While the Senate had planned to take up Iraq legislation this week, Reid had previously been unclear what specifics members would consider.

The first amendment, backed by Reid and Sen. Russ Feingold, would require that combat operations end by March 31, 2008, by cutting off money after that date.

The second measure would provide more than $120 billion (€88.5 billion) to fund the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as various domestic projects. It would call for troops to begin leaving Iraq by Oct. 1, but allow the president to waive that requirement.

Passage of the $120 billion (€88.5 billion) in war spending would not allow the Senate to begin negotiating with the House of Representatives and send President George W. Bush a bill by the end of the month, said Rodell Mollineau, a Reid spokesman. Nevertheless, he added, "these are important votes. This will give members an opportunity to debate these issues and have up-or-down votes on these."




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The House last week approved, 221-205, legislation that would fund the war in two-month installments, giving Congress a chance to cut off money for the war after July. The House measure was considered unlikely to survive in the Senate, where Democrats wanted to fund the war through September.

"On our side of the aisle, Democrats believe they should do something very, very close to what was done in the bill that was sent to the president to be vetoed," said Reid.

Reid's strategy is likely to appease party members like Feingold who say they will not vote for legislation that funds the deeply unpopular war without binding language demanding U.S. troops leave. While Reid co-sponsored Feingold's proposal, he has said he would not push it as a caucus position.

"The American people deserve to have the Senate go on record about whether or not it wants to end our misguided mission in Iraq and safely redeploy our brave troops," said Feingold.

However, Feingold's tough anti-war measure is unlikely to pass the Senate, where Democrats hold a narrow majority and several oppose using the budget to end the war.

Blair made Bush's ordeal in Iraq less lonely, but it cost him

WASHINGTON: The Iraq war has been a lonely quest for President George W. Bush, but it has been less so thanks to the unwavering backing of British Prime Minister Tony Blair.

Blair is stepping down on June 27 after a decade in power, and no issue during his tenure is leaving a more indelible imprint than his no-apologies support for the U.S.-led war effort.

Bush seemed optimistic Thursday about the possibility of continuity on Iraq between Blair and his likely successor, Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown, the government's financial chief.

The president told reporters on Thursday that he believes Brown "understands the consequences of failure" in Iraq. As Bush sees it, a U.S. defeat would give a boost to terror everywhere.

Britain ranks second, after the United States, in terms of troops committed to Iraq. The British total is 7,100 but a reduction to 5,000 is planned for late this year.






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With Blair's announcement, Bush faces the final 19 months of his term in office without his closest ally and, as the president described him, "good friend."

The two appear to have a relaxed relationship. In Russia last year, unaware that a nearby microphone was on, Bush was heard to greet his colleague with a "Yo, Blair," leaving the prime minister embarrassed.

While there was shared anguish over the maelstrom in Iraq, neither leader has given any hint of regret over the venture. Both have paid a dear price politically, scoring under 30 percent in polls, the fallout from a war that is highly unpopular in both the United States and Britain.

Julianne Smith, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said there is no question that Blair's legacy "will suffer from the stain of Iraq."

Blair, she said, was content to "cozy up to the United States to the bitter end, refusing to look back and question his choice."

Charles Kupchan, of the Council on Foreign Relations, said Blair "leaves under a cloud, having lost the confidence of his own party and with the Conservatives well ahead in the polls."

A month ago, Brown met with Bush for the first time without Blair being present. The two men spoke for a half-hour after Bush dropped in on a meeting between Brown and U.S. national security adviser Stephen Hadley. Brown was in Washington for meetings at the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

"I have found him to be an open and engaging person," Bush said, also describing him as an "easy-to-talk-to, good thinker."

On Iraq, Brown had promised to "spend what it takes" to disarm Saddam Hussein's Iraq. He is expected to keep British troops in Iraq for the near future, and to maintain Britain's strong relationship with America.

While Brown's ultimate course on Iraq is unclear, Europe has been generally projecting a friendlier image toward the United States. The latest concrete example is the recent election of Nicolas Sarkozy as president of France, which followed the accession in Germany of Chancellor Angela Merkel in late 2005.